‘More than Brexit!’ Sturgeon’s independence dream dismantled in brutal cost assessment

Indyref2: Scottish independence cost discussed by expert

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Dr Thomas Sampson, a specialist in international trade at the London School of Economics, told Channel 4 News that the economic repercussions of Scotland voting independence would be massive. He explained how the fallout from a yes vote in IndyRef2 would cost “two to three times more” than Brexit before explaining how the Scottish income per capita would shrink hugely. The damming assessment of Scottish economic and trade prospects if the country votes independence comes as Sturgeon refuses to publish an economic forecast for an independent Scotland.

Dr Sampson said: “My research finds that independence would be around two to three times more costly for the Scottish economy than Brexit.

“Reducing Scotland’s income per capita by somewhere between six and nine percent.” 

The international trade expert added “that’s coming from the additional cost of trading across the border.”

He went on to say this would lead to ”higher prices and fewer opportunities” for exporting for Scotland and its economy.

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Appearing on the Andrew Marr show on Sunday, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was grilled over whether it is “shameful” that she has not released an economic projection of how independence will affect Scotland and its future outside of the United Kingdom.

The BBC host asked: “Don’t you think it’s shameful that a government looking to take Scotland out of the UK hasn’t even bothered to look at the impact on the economy?”

Ms Sturgeon replied: “If I was asking people a week on Thursday to vote on the question whether or not Scotland should be independent then yes, I would agree with that.

“But I’m not asking people to do that on Thursday and if I was to do all that modelling now, we would have to redo it when asking people to make that choice… I believe it is only right to ask people to make that choice of that magnitude on the basis of quality, up-to-date information.”

Nicola Sturgeon on hopes for Scotland to 'trade freely' with EU

Mr Marr went on to expose the cost of rejoining the European Union as an independent Scotland telling Sturgeon that despite her own claims that EU membership would require a border between Scotland and England.

Ms Sturgeon said: “You may wish Brexit hadn’t happened but it has happened.

“Where we are now, entering the EU and being a part of the single market, requires a physical border with England, for Scotland.”

The First Minister finished by saying: “The only way out of that is to persuade the EU to give up on the single market regulations as they apply to Scotland – good luck with that!”


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Earlier this month European Movement in Scotland published its 15-point manifesto for parties to adopt in the upcoming Scottish election campaign on May 6th.

Among its demands are for parties to “limit any negative impact of Brexit on public health by ensuring an adequate supply of medication and treatments”.

It comes despite Britain continuing to outpace the EU with its coronavirus vaccination programme.

While more than 50 percent of Brits have received at least one dose of a Covid jab, just 21 percent of people in the EU have had an injection, according to Our World in Data.

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